Myers Research and Grove Insight for the DSCC (dates unknown, likely voters):
Tom Udall (D): 57
Steve Pearce (R): 41
(MoE: ±4%)
Meanwhile, NRSC Chair John Ensign says that Republicans could stay at 49 seats after November, which, under any plausible scenario, would have to include a Steve Pearce victory.
Not. Gonna. Happen.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Democratic.
Jon Ensign must be breathing some very high air in D.C. or Nevada, the plain fact that he says the Republicans can stay at 49 is hilarious. He is going to be severely disappointed when the majority is 57-42-1 (Joe Lieberman can’t be considered a reliable Democrat!).
Assuming losses in VA and NM, I suppose he could be wishing for a pick up in Louisiana and a Lieberman party switch?? OK, neither of those seem plausible.
BTW, there seems to have been a dearth of polls of the LA race. Last poll I can find is by Rasmussen from mid-August. It had Landrieu up 56-39 but earlier polling had a much closer race. Did Hurricanes Hannah and Ike impact the race? Palin as VP selection and reinvigorated GOP base? Last poll looked better than I would have hoped for and would love to see another showing the race holding steady for her.
He’s probably couting Lieberman in that 49. Even in that case they still have no chance at 49 though.
Decides to caucus with the Republicans, and Kennedy beats Landrieu but Udall(Tom) and Warner win, they’ll be at 49 seats.
Reality settling back into New Mexico.
are double digit margin victories for the Democratic Senate Candidates. NH and CO margin of victories are between 5 to 10 points and AK,OR,MN,and NC are less than 5 points.